in 2019, Rosa into five years ago she once worked for a law firm, had just come in when she was a lawyer assistant. She looked round and saw that the firm size much smaller than she remembered now – only a few staff, plus a few logistics.
actually had before leaving, she felt ominous: her BOSS at that time had begun to use a computer program automatically reviewing documents, the technical content is not high, grinding time working alone, replaced by the high-tech, unemployment two word is like a knife time hang on with her friends.
Rosa at that time, had a moment of fear, but she quickly determined: learning to program. So she got a new job, software engineer and then the product manager.
but not all of the friends all choose to continue to work in the software industry, most of them are freelancers today, compared to review documents such as mechanical work, they are now doing, more creative, body and mind are much happier.
now before she came to his former club, as customers, of course, also may be a future of the company founder, she in a few months before a premade considerations with a great idea, hope is the idea, set up a new company, she find the old club to discuss cooperation. She is not the first time he came into the office, as it is now.
not long after, we seem to see scenes like Rosa. Robots will do all white-collar work, finance, human resources and administrative management. Any office work, boring list in automation. The next generation of robots may not mechanical arms and legs, but they will work like human beings, like a robot now has taken over our factories and warehouses.
the future will be greatly surprised many people, in the next ten years, I believe that the complex algorithm will be in the field of cloud steaming, reference a large amount of data collection, replace most of the daily work tasks.
a retrospect of the past several decades, you will see a process to replace – similar to that of industrial robots replaced manual labor in the field of industry. The National Bureau of Economic Research (National Bureau of Economic Research) in the first half of released a exciting file, referred to “human liberation” from the regular work. The author of this document according to the regular or irregular or physical, cognitive, will be divided into four categories: professional. Their career with the United States government from January 1976 to 1976 by the end of the current population survey statistics match.
I looked at 36 years in the file under the conventional manual industry employment rate decrease and die, is very interesting, industrial robot industry explosion happened to be in the same period. The chart below from the national bureau of economic research file:
in 1961, General Motors, one of the fortune 500 (General Motors) in the capital of Trenton, New Jersey factory installed the first industrial robot. According to the data provided by the international association of robot, global 3000 in 1973, industrial robot, ten years later, this figure rose to 66000. By 2011, that number jumped to 1.1 million.
in 1969, general motors, Ohio in the United States rose in a factory installed a spot welding robot. Here is the international association of robot description of gm productivity: robot “boosts productivity and allow more than 90% of the welding automation operation, by contrast, traditional factory only a few large jig as auxiliary, motorized only 20% – 20%, this case welding is a dirty and dangerous of physical labor.”
robot join work will lead to a natural person have no work to do? Cynthia Breazeal not so think:
“any new technology, are the people from the refused to do dirty easily drudgery, meanwhile they will create new jobs, let people to do more interesting work.”
comprehensive international robot association of America’s national bureau of economic research data, industrial robot revolution changed the nature of the conventional manual labor. It also created a new, billions of dollars worth of industry, the value is rising at an annual double-digit percentage. Like Breazeal points out, this industry allows people to do work more interesting.
Rosa’s story is a bit like the gold finger of science fiction. But when I see the progress of computer science, I believe that in the next few years, we will see big data era, like the industrial robot transformative impact on the traditional handmade professional, computer simulation and success to learn human behavior, in the field of professional class career to an epoch-making change.
we can from a particular area, such as natural language processing, to clarify the above this. The theory about using the machine understanding and translating word for a long time without forming, even before the first computer appeared, people are baffled. After the second world war, researchers began to explore the related technology, password cracking translation, machine translation finally realized to some extent.
in 1954, the Georgetown university and IBM through cooperation, finally succeeded in on a computer illustrates the Russian to English translation, it immediately became the headlines, many people predicted optimistically, in the next few years in this area will get more rapid development.
in 1970, Terry Winograd, professor at MIT artificial intelligence lab created SHRDLU (blocks) in the World, some call it Block the World. The idea is that, in a very limited environment – simple to play Minecraft (my world) the children won’t feel unfamiliar environment, computer can “understand” the user’s intent.
in the next two decades, most of the natural language processing system focused on building a set of a set of increasingly complex rules again. In the late 1980 s, however, this field evolved, researchers have been using machine learning algorithms to realize for the first time in the 50 s to make the commitment to computer translation.
thanks to Moore’s law as well as the digital era of information explosion brought incredible processing power, now these algorithms including the unsupervised learning algorithm, this algorithm defeated the “supervision” system – that is, given a set of rules of old way – to deal with a broader language and file.
NLP (nerve linguistics) the impact on the industry makes the shift becomes more interesting. For example, according to a report in the Wall Street journal, last year the U.S. justice department has approved the use of the technology within the scope permitted by law review document. After approval, the department of justice first related case is the Constellation of the Crown Imports. Estimated than artificial audit, the cost savings for the company for at least 50%.
a report by the rand institute for civil justice, “where money flows: to understand the litigation expenses of the electronics industry” shows that the machine work than artificial can higher quality, lower cost.
“because this is an emerging technology, few people will study the accuracy of the prediction coding with human review. Despite the lack of research data, but it is generally accepted that the coding identification at least prediction error is less than traditional manual review. And there are some evidence to suggest that it can do better.”
this is the coming daily work automation real catalyst – more quickly and economically providing higher quality products and services. I served Birchmere Ventures company is considered by these technologies for electronic evidence is the beginning of the reform of legal profession
who can consider to make robots take over the professionalism of the task, should have known the problems and solutions, even if the solution is quite complicated.
it is a trend of social impact will be enormous. At Carnegie Mellon university, my students read specialized graduate student period from computational biology to specialize in business research, each are not identical. As a result, their career path in the next few years also entirely different.
I think we need to prepare in the education system, let the students better able to transition to a “more interesting”. For this they first need to efforts to develop the skills necessary to solve the problem of the unknown. That’s why I think even the students who is not interested in business, as well as my benefit at Carnegie Mellon university, lean on entrepreneurship.
the good news is, I believe that everyone wants to be creative. When daily trivial work to spend effort to minimize, people should get more opportunities. Finally, because the staff monthly number of cuts, we also need to prepare students to become their own boss, or more is to be your own boss, becoming a freelancer (34% of people are already doing).