Peter thayer: non-human enemy robots, but a savior

cloud network hunting note: in the robot started to replace a large amount of human labor at the same time, many people are worried about their jobs will be lost, fear of the threat of a robot. This really the case development? Silicon valley investor Peter tal (Peter Thiel) with its rich philosophical speculative thinking independently for we reveal that the robot is not an enemy of mankind, it is the saviour of mankind. The following was written by Peter Thiel, FT compilation.

with the guidance of astronauts to the moon, compared to computer today every a smartphone data processing ability to win thousands of times. If Moore’s law is still accurate, the future will be more powerful computer. According to Moore’s law, computing capacity doubled about every two years.

but today, americans are less fantasy computer will help people to achieve great deeds, but increasingly fear will take our computers work. In the 1960 s, many people are optimistic to save human technology, and now this optimistic have given way to a terrible question: do you have use value of labor in the future? Or, you will be replaced by a machine?

this is afraid of being replaced the mood is not new. Fifteen years ago, American workers feared that competition from cheap labor in Mexico. In 1992 the U.S. presidential candidate Ross? Perot (Ross Perot) predicted that, once the North American Free Trade Agreement (North American Free Trade Agreement) signed, then along the southern border in the United States, people will hear a giant sucking sound “.

today people think they heard the sound again, but when they hearing tracking and found not Tijuana cheap factory (Tijuana, Mexico northwest city), but the server group, Texas. Americans fear “in the near future,” science and technology, this is because they will be as a repeat of the “shortly before” the emergence of globalization.

but two things are quite different: the computer is not like other human beings, they cannot replace labor. the things we humans and machines are different. Humans can plan and make a decision in a complex situation. We are not very good at analyzing huge amounts of data. The computer is on the contrary, they are good at processing data efficiently, but it is hard to make anyone can easily make a basic judgement.

I’m from chief executive to Paypal experience this conclusion. In the middle of the first decade of the 21st century, we survived the dotcom bubble burst, the rapid growth, but we ran into a big problem: our losses from credit card fraud at least $10 million a month. Because we have to deal with hundreds of thousands of transactions per minute, it is not possible for every deal. Composed of human quality management team never review so fast.

we tried to write software to solve this problem, the software can automatically identify the false trading, and real time. But the fact proved that this method doesn’t work quickly, only one or two hours later, the thieves will understand the software, then change strategy to deceive us.

however artificial analysts will not easily by the adaptive strategy to deceive the criminals. So we adopt a hybrid approach to write software, first by the computer marked the most suspicious transactions, again by human operators to make the final judgment.

this man-machine cooperation to Paypal to stay in business, which in turn allow hundreds of thousands of small businesses to receive payment, allowing them to thrive on the Internet.

although most Paypal customer thought we were just a software company, they have never even heard of human-machine cooperation solution, but without it, we can’t get such results. Most people for automation, and ignore the role of human in the software running, forget without human operation, the software itself is worthless.

venture capitalists mark? Andreessen (Marc Andreessen) declared: “software is engulfing the entire world.” But this fear is irrational.

we seem to have forgotten the computer won’t eat. Whether for work or anything else, they have no any desire. They are not there. Computer is needed but a little power, and even they are not smart enough to offer to this demand.

unlike computers, human beings really want to eat something, whether it is Shanghai shark fin fish tacos or San Diego, everyone needs food. Humans also want to drink, oil drilling, mining operations – and these materials are on the same planet.

on the one hand, thanks to China’s recent globalization, so American consumers can buy cheap toys and textiles, on the other hand also want to pay for more expensive gas, because of China’s new owners demand pushed up gasoline prices.

and human desires are not confined to survive, along with the advance of globalization, the requirements of the people will be more and more. Since China’s hundreds of millions of farmers can finally eat, they naturally want to meat ratio can be improved.

the world’s resources are limited, the globalization of demand is a long-term threat resources rose sharply. So we need new technology to reduce the threat.

human cooperating with computer, will be able to because of a computer and a new transaction, if not, we will be in a troubled world. In this world, all will remain the same old work, wages will decline, prices will rise, because the people of the world will compete to work, to consume material.

the human biggest enemy is ourselves, human machine is the most important ally, they allow us to do new things.

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