the author: ran wang (follow co., LTD. Chief executive)
I forgot where to have seen a saying: in a few cars on the highway you see who’s driving technology is good, only need pour in the crowded parking lot parking or rubbing repository to see it. I think he is quite accurate, says to wear a suit of don’t tie the top shirt a grain of buckle open most of the time of the investors.
this year, in some circles, the three words “investors” has become almost a derogatory term. If only occasionally in the various fool a school on the performance of the little girl’s fine, the problem is that a considerable part of them are on their main business and the business.
I will first part for investors to be fair. My job, I average at least once a week to meet with 10 to 15 investors, big to only cast project more than us $two hundred million of private equity funds, buyout funds and sovereign wealth funds, small to three, did the risk of investment fund of $five million. Some of which still has a very far-sighted, judgment and even personality charm of investors; I also learned a lot from them. If investors are like them, these three words there is no doubt that should be good.
the only problem is that any team will be good and evil people mixed up, investors are no exception. In hot money, the team expanded sharply, and China in the ninety s, and basically do not have the business before, a grave shortage of talent, so the final result is that no matter who as long as don’t congenital brain rot has almost can be when investors.
and there is now such a situation: at least half of the investors independent judgment ability to close to zero. They should to today this situation, which industries and businesses to cast, what kind of price both can call it reasonable and does not belong to fish in troubled waters bully doesn’t really independent, and willing to stick to the judge. At more of time, they are more used to parrot, chase after go up kill drop, after the rush again coax down; In general, what do they usually know what hot cold, do not know what good what is bad.
now think that so much money at the outdoor media, is an impossible thing. But at the time, each investor in this field has a lot of to China’s GDP growth down to someone on the special relationship between the reason to convince myself investment committee. Later, in the field of education, clean energy, etc, also appear similar situation. In the field of video, if they take up to a dozen or even dozens of company funds focused on the five rationally (allowing them to all the original a little faster switching speed even more forfeits two years), the situation of the industry will have a fundamental change.
it seems to me that quite a number of problems of investors is not distinguish “good company” and “may give investors earn money company”.
in fact, this is two completely different concepts. Most of the time, the investor says he hopes for “good company”, thought of is to watch in two or three years (or even a year or two) through the IPO companies to help investors to make money. Although all of the good company finally should be able to help investors to make money, but not all seems likely to make investors earn money is a good company.
the vast majority of investors are not very good at doing before a judge (whether a company is really good company), and more willing to do a judgment after (whether the project could help investors to make money), it is because the previous judgment is much more difficult – it requires backchat sharp eyes and hit the nail on the head, then a judgment only need financial model and wishful thinking. Sometimes it is easy to be blinded by themselves. Wrongly assuming that she did most of the time, the investor is before a judge, it is done after a judgment — they put behind determine the company to make money for their results for sure the company is a good reason.
the market good, the pig can fly in the sky, what a mess of the company, as long as it’s not cheat (threw a liar is not investors, of course, a two) – are likely to benefit investors. It does not require investors special wisdom and vision. If an enterprise just argument may in the case of the external environment for anything all the way of fast until successful ipo, investors don’t really have much value of the existence of this occupation.
I think, the more the more early investors don’t try to judge the market. To judge the market may be a rare talent of investors, but it is not most investors’ bounden duty. Investor is the first duty of a judge is a good enterprise – that is, in the market when it is more than its competitors have the ability to harvest, when the market is not good if it is more capable than its competitors for the winter.
a number of investors, the question is when they follow their own work from the judgment enterprise indirectly into the market, and they didn’t have the talent to judge the market (this is normal and understandable) originally, therefore the tide recedes at once who’s been swimming naked in the sky.
in the future, as well as the vast majority of industry in China, also need to invest in the industry consolidation. Both venture capital and private equity investment, the fund should be concentrated to a few really has the sense of management institutions. Investors who will only parrot a lift follow suit should find a more suitable for their own industry.
recently, I found an interesting phenomenon, the more the more big investors in rubbing their hands now mustering for the bottom in China, the small risk investment, the more strong wait-and-see mood, look around the project seems to be slow motion than in body. There may be some interesting reasons.
however, the reality of today is: all of them were forced to the parking lot. You are new or old driver will soon. In the present market environment, facing the challenge of simple instead. For investors, do you think the market will come back after how long has been less important, anyway, if you are back to five years ten years not to everybody just wash sleep together), let us temporarily assume that the market there is no fundamental improvement in three years but where not bad (although I personal judgment than this optimism, but in front of me said, personal judgment is not important). Investors need to answer the question only one: do you have ability to find those three to five years can survive and increasingly strong good company – no matter in this three years of the IPO window is completely open or leaving behind a small even the mosquitoes fly past the crack of the door, and at the right price to enter it.