note: hunting cloud in the present many entrepreneurs to stare at a certain niche pain points and the status quo of entrepreneurship, innovation works investment partner Lai Xiaoling began warning, and argues that to solve the current pain points to entrepreneurship is a very big hole, the real evaluation of a project is a good starting point, will focus on three key points: trend, change and time points. Below for the full text, from innovation works WeChat officer number:
in such an era of national business, more and more people to give up a big company work, choose to develop a product to change the world.
by solving the current pain points to entrepreneurship, actually there is a huge risk. So-called pain points and just need are the pain points and just need to, but wait for entrepreneurs to set out to solve, wait until the product online, may be a year or two years have passed, and then the pain or pain points? Environment is changing all the time, today’s pain points in the two years later, perhaps simply no longer is pain points, the needs of today is no longer demand, environment changed solutions have also changed. So I think that to solve the current pain points to entrepreneurship is a very big hole.
from an investment perspective, we see a project to solve the user pain points is a good starting point, look at the three problems: trend, change and time points.
trend: bullish or bearish?
for investors, investment is a kind of trend. Sunrise industry, we often say to want to invest money to buy shares to buy or not to buy up, but for early investors, we also difficult to judge what is a sunrise industry, as it is hard to ensure that a stock has been rising will not buy the second day of the turn down, most of the summary, analysis, and judgment are wise after the event. From experience, that are hard to earn money, most of the industry practitioners feel despair, sometimes it is worth to pay attention to.
when an industry continues to weaken, rising costs, profits thinning constantly, until the time of the most industry losses, there are two possibilities: fall into the abyss or jedi rebound. If the new technology, the Internet can affect the industry jedi rebound opportunities would be great. in 2008 and 2009, the mobile phone industry, for example, industry insiders should remember the interest rate than the pain of the blade is thin.
can keep for years what percentage of the growth of the industry, but it is hard to find a large enough opportunity. Because there have been new players to come in, constantly bring new funds, the market will become more dispersed, it is hard to discern the appearance of a monopoly firm. The steady growth of the market for investors is likely to be a tasteless abandon eaten but a pity to chicken ribs. Unless the steady growth can in a few years, due to technical development, social structure change, or some other external cause, there is a larger upward inflection point. Is back I have to say “change”.
time points: the east wind in place?
in business and investment, the trend of judgment is relatively has a certain rhyme, but to judge “in time” is a very difficult thing. The most optimistic people always think that tomorrow the earth-shaking changes, hurriedly rush in, and they were afraid to miss the time window. Optimistic people generally consider 3, 4 years later a considerable changes will happen, but the actual situation may tend to be longer than 3, 4 years; And for pessimistic people may never see this change, or that even if want to change, also need to satisfy a lot of conditions, how also get 5 ~ 10 years of time, so did not dare to do anything, they just forget to present more and more technology “Moore’s law”, a surprising exponential growth.
“too early to die on the beach”, “it’s too late to have a lot of people doing the”, “it is a pity that didn’t hold on for a year or two” basically is to describe how to judge “in time” in the process of entrepreneurial insight. So startup time rhythm grasp is particularly important.
in the time of judgment is likely to lead to another “national entrepreneurship phenomenon” or “copycat entrepreneurial phenomena”. When an opportunity comes along, appear on the market a few one or two with 2, 3 years the accumulation of the company, a lot of entrepreneurs and investors to quickly see the value of these companies, so quick to follow up. appeared that is similar to the advertising, do group purchase, solar energy, and the room, massage, used car now. Copycat entrepreneurial edge, your own judgment.
investment is investment trends, more accurate investment “change”. Continue to slow the rise or fall is not the good opportunity, only “change” is the opportunity, this change is more like the “inflection point” on the geometry. Innovation works 09 decided to make the android related investment, then symbian is dominant; The iPhone ecosystem build a relatively perfect, on the App Store, developers have begun to receive income; Android system is imperfect, the APP scarce, market or desolate. Then you should choose is still has a huge stock market, and there is a huge shipments of Symbian, or has been preliminary build ecological system of apple, or to the investment of a large number of android? The answer is very clear today, but the industry was still have different opinions.
it is a universal business era, which for the society as a whole, investment agencies and entrepreneurs is a good thing. Especially smart phone popularity, the Internet is no longer a very high-tech, unreachable things, China’s four line five cities people suddenly can completely and first-tier cities like equality with and use the Internet. It has brought a lot of business opportunities and investment opportunities, whether it is pure mobile Internet applications, games, or O2O. This is a big change!
but to a specific one area, especially the O2O areas, requires specific analysis. Great changes have taken place in the online Internet, but there are offline specific industry changes? If the rash because of the popularity of mobile Internet, is considered various offline services have an opportunity, this is very dangerous.
entrepreneurs must ask yourself: why would I do the things today than five years ago, the higher the probability of success? Why use android/iOS dispatch vehicles today than five years ago, people use PND unit, with a WinCE, use Linux to dispatch vehicles will be better? In addition to the change of the technology, the industry also accumulated the breakthrough potential energy?
is optimistic, indeed in a traditional industry in China has accumulated decades, is in a state of informationization level is low, most of the industry organization mode and operation mode in the inefficient state, although the original PC Internet in improving some, but in the mobile Internet to construct a business system completely. Decentralization, disintermediation, organized in the next few years will be happen in different industries.
don’t talk about subversion
at present a lot of people think find from traditional industry with the Internet thinking at the same time is difficult, to be able to transition from traditional industry to the Internet is more difficult than the Internet to realize the traditional industry to, I have different views on this point. And those in the traditional industry do all his life, probably can’t even get to the Internet, after 60 different after 70. In 80, after a while they work in the traditional industry, but also has the ability of the Internet, to a certain extent and awareness:
the first, they has been using the Internet since it was a student of products, is no stranger to the Internet. Second, the experience can be transplanted to the Internet; Third, full Internet related datums, today they have intention to not intentional of Internet edification.
so in theory, the traditional industry in 80 after learning the Internet faster than the Internet people understand the traditional industry. Who is in traditional industry to understand the Internet will be the next batch of entrepreneurial powerhouse, they will change a lot of industry.
Internet entrepreneurs like to talk about “subversion”, to subvert the subversive that, most of the industry cannot be upset, just rebuild business rules. If the food isn’t good, again the Internet also to swallow; Watches not good-looking, timing, again how connected to the Internet, how to install the APP to also won’t how many people use; Air conditioning not refrigeration, noise also is very big, can use mobile phone remote control, can?
the Internet gives a lot of business opportunities, but should return the product to do well, the service to do well.