“Dry” nine top investors debate: vc bubble? Or the unprecedented prosperity?

(article/Fu Hao Wang Xian Bai Xin)

“A round of millions of dollars, you are not say.” To see a project in the product before launch has already announced that after $25 million of funding, entrepreneurs still quipped. In October in the past, a variety of start-up reports say tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars of financing with each big website news.

“this project is too expensive, slightly on projects of all kinds of with me.” Many investors complain to netease science and technology, and a lot of projects and frequently mouth to melt a millions of millions of dollars. Some had just finished melting round, immediately rise in price several times in the next round of financing. “This is crazy, 2014”.

matrix partners founder zhang ying is the first to throw the “bubble” there, thinks the market from “greed” to “fear” the key is your fingertips. But the widespread rhetoric speech by another VC bosses: “zhang ying is cried out, bubble, while in hard!”

put venture capital at this stage what not to put bubble? If there is a bubble? When will burst? The next two to three years of the top investment in what areas? What are the reasons they wrong project? Wise in 36 kr conference, netease technology exclusive depth interviewed nine first-class domestic investors, venture capital situation and the future trend of the current has carried on the depth of the discussion. : GGV GGV capital management partner Jenny lee, qiming jp gan, bertelsmann Asia investment fund founding porch yu, IDG venture partners and management of the partnership a queue, the speed of light AnZhen Bi group, general manager of China venture capital fund, saif investment fund partner sheep east, blue ventures’ jui, very serious fund partner wang qiang, jiuhe Wang Xiao venture partners. Believe that these active investors point of view, will help you to judge and firm.

here are the main points of the interview, in order to complete the original rendering, to question and answer. More wonderful content, please look netease science and technology of the follow-up reports.

vc bubble PK throws the golden age

netease science and technology: this year, many investment institutions complain that the project is too expensive, rob project is too fierce. Artificially high, project financing “bubble theory” “the cold winter will come” became popular. What do you think of the venture capital field bubble? “Cold winter will come”?

jp gan (qiming) :
Have a cold? I don’t think so. Don’t you think that everything is under full? In the long run, the financing environment of today is still in the “summer” or “late spring season, winter is still very far.

I believe that markets are efficient. In the form of capitalism in the market, we are all with their own money to invest, information flow and journalists, investment managers so many people to get, so there will be a few so-called real bubble. The market itself will decide the value.

short-term market fluctuations can’t call it a bubble, most can call. This is just between greed and fear of shaking. A true bubble is when everyone is extremely greedy not afraid just may form. Just like the Dutch tulip bubble, bought a tulip changed hands can double the next day, this can be called a bubble.

now the market is relatively rational, but the valuation was slightly higher than before. Ali, because in the past a period of time only after the product will be listed valuations are high, the unlisted millet also got very high valuations, so greedy side of some of the pressure side of fear. But everyone is completely greedy state is a long way. The market is still very healthy.

sheep east (saif investment) :
It is not good to determine whether a bubble has formed. If the next two years, valuation levels are maintained at the height of the now, may be it’s hard to say the bubble is real.

the Internet for the investment environment has formed the basis of a great deal of impact, so I recently came up with a “the idea of an early investment stock market”.

until today in development of the Internet investment have formed many familiar with the rules of the game, mature investor groups and groups of entrepreneurs, including netease and 36 kr group of information transmission media, such as. This pattern makes the transparency of information level than before to improve the investment environment greatly.

of course, this kind of information transparency also attracted many not mature enough to some extent of investors and entrepreneurs want to money. These groups into the investment environment will make early appear irrational, but also belong to the normal range, and comprehensible. Investors must know what you want, you must insist on your investment strategy.

Jenny lee (GGV capital) :
Winter hasn’t arrived. But for entrepreneurs, should keep every day is winter the mindset of entrepreneurial environment. Today, in fact, entrepreneurs face the market space, talent, capital space room to much more than five years ago, ten years ago, much better. From the perspective of investors, we must find a rookie tomorrow, tomorrow’s rookie will in a few new areas, these new fields will be born a disruptive new areas and business models. For a business model, is bound to some people, some people think don’t understand. Look not to understand he will feel bad, think the price is too high, but the price is not high this thing is we can’t judge today, such as three to five years later to look ahead, we will say, but valuations are not expensive at that time.

on the discretion of the valuation, we were the first points of the test is our judgment. If your judgment is that most people can guess out, this time again to invest must be expensive, because it has been listed.

wang yu (nine us venture capital) :
Investment in this matter is affected by the outside world, especially in the early investment. Why finance bubble with the several factors: 1, the technology performance in nearly a year and a half of good, will share valuations in expanded several times, went up from the dotcom stocks in the stock market valuation adjustment; 2, because of the adjustment, reflected in the primary market is the investment more hot, investment performance in two aspects: (1), the new fund is more, have more LP willing to spend money; (2), the speed of the existing fund investment projects and rob has accelerated, the degree of the whole business in the market much more money, but I can’t so many projects, such a relatively good project, got the high valuations, more rapid development.

wang qiang (very) :
Now the market really hot. How much partial heat is not in a bubble, but the first entrepreneurial zeal to an all-time high, more and more out of the project, the more capital, which constitutes a market for more than two to heat.

with more than three years ago, according to the market average, early project has two to three times the magnification, three years ago, I use a third of the money can into good enterprise, now the price is gone. This is, of course, the market average level.

long yu (bertelsmann investment) :
The current investment bubble mainly concentrated in the angel round and A round. Investment now, angel rounds should from $10 million to $20 million, 2000 to 30 million, A wheel was rushed to the B wheel has become A typical state of original C wheel. Everybody thought said in such a situation, and calm. As an investor, of course, I hope you can calm down, let I to the cheaper company, a reasonable price. But my personal opinion, I think within the next six months, especially in A wheel and angel rounds of financing situation, will continue to go hot, stalemate.

porch (IDG capital) :
Capital markets can not completely in a straight line. If only ask valuation is reasonable? The answer is never reasonable, it is always on the high side is low without a calibration line. Foam actually has its role: first of all, from the “entrepreneurs” and “user” this rapid develop habits at both ends. Such as a few days ago a taxi two software competition to develop the habits of mobile payment users. Second, the “bubble” to a certain extent, also contributed to the innovation in the field of the speed, because everyone think the market hot, prospect is good, is to try to innovation, make the other was on the edge of the “sea” hesitation are also determined to participate.

of course, there are some disadvantages, such as valuations may appear abnormally high, shorter time for investors to judge.

recommends entrepreneurs: quickly melt PK rational financing

netease technology: if investment market exists partial hot phenomenon, when will the callback? Entrepreneurs before the callback should do? You have any advice for entrepreneurs at the present stage?

jp gan (qiming) :
Short-term market fluctuations cannot be accurately forecast, so we will see macro environment for a long time. China’s GDP growth down that accompany comprehensive Internet will bring a lot of innovative entrepreneurial opportunities. From the broader economy to talent reserves, the development of China’s venture capital will be rapid development.

wang yu (nine us venture capital) :
Will adjust down market, have to go up and down, when I was a callback has started slowly, next year is expected to return to rationality.

‘jui (blue ventures) :
The market is always in a “crazy” crazy – adjustment – rational – between fluctuations, market overheating, returned to adjust back. Always the rule.

sheep east (rich capital) :
Entrepreneurs should learn to calculate large account when financing rather than the absolute amount of staring at the sight. A day after your company public share price movements may be now you this round of financing. Therefore, entrepreneurs should focus on when financing financing success rate and the number of shares on the grasp of the valuation height should not be overweight.

long yu (bertelsmann investment) :
Inside the most money in the field of early investors often is not the most knowledgeable, but just to enter this industry to trial and error. Entrepreneurs need not care about valuations in early, even if the angel round raise less, if the products keep pace with A wheel will also give you A repair back.

entrepreneurs will face a math problem, how much I want to dilute the least amount of shares, to complete the first stage of the target. Did this problem is very difficult, because in the current overheating see-saw game of the game, you need more consideration to the opponent’s reaction, but I will still recommend, as far as possible simple, step by step the problem solving, get the money as soon as possible, dilute the least amount of shares, you don’t forget to choose the most understand you, like you, with you the most tacit understanding of investors.

wang qiang (very) :
As capital rational, will gradually return to the nature of the business and investment, the investment is the selection of the nature of man, a good project; Echo of the essence of entrepreneurship is a rigid demand market, have real imagination space, as long as in the nature are not too big problem.

my advice to entrepreneurs financing is that despite the market now is hot, to raise the probability of large, but as an entrepreneur should be very rational, dare to reverse the market. Don’t carry the valuation at the beginning too high, if you are the angel phase to A round of level, when the capital liquidity in financing probability is not big, you this money till the end of the next round, the value of that you could not ascend, may decline, adverse to the company long-term development. Really wanted to be a great person is to dare to reverse the market and moving. Is best to try you this winter pattern line not line, you melt 200000, for example, you can’t, you are such a team can also do something else, if you to a target in harmony to 2 million, the pressure is very big, because you have gathered the people are going for this, one thousand next not smooth, the team is going to fall apart, the market didn’t give you enough endorsed, where the next round of capital, to meet? Because previous round value is so high that no value is even not round. So the capital market and commercial market has an invisible hand, you easily after the first level, the next level you can not go, or there is always a close are you a hard time. Return to the startup, is what you do, dream is big enough, occupy the market all the vision is able to satisfy the business enterprise. Satisfied that the other doesn’t have to worry. Surviving enterprises must be from the first day to do, going to the market and launch service will satisfy the real demand on the market, rather than a false demand.

fail reason PK: wrong player or wrong track?

netease science and technology: do you have miss many years of investment experience? What was the reason for the miss? Founder is wrong or the trend from the wrong?

jp gan (qiming) :
B: of course. Each fund is miss case. Of course we have. We are due to some failure case most of team out of the question. Everyone is investment for people, there is no doubt that the company finally succeeded because people. Of course, the timing of the technical project into early to late may also have a problem. But we are doing business architecture on the judgment of the basic can do close, eventually a problem because many team hasn’t been able to make things go on, or technology lags behind, or in some key point team appeared between each other out, and so on.

porch (IDG capital) :
Failure case there are two major reasons, one is the industry never see clear, one is to the person’s judgment. In the overheated investment and need to be very quick decisions, we will choose their own familiar field.

Wang Xiao nine (vc) :
I couldn’t vote for a project is mainly judged by the founder. First look at the people on this matter. Are you interested in, must have the focus, the second must have the ability to learn, third must have the concept of landscape, to benefit less.

the failure of the case, I never mistake in investment direction, most of the failed because people didn’t take. This person is not too focus, for example, this is very deadly. Some people more flexible but not enough persistent, encountered some difficulties, actually passes this camp, but he didn’t, in the road, see the good direction, can’t do this, see the good direction, immediately turned to. There is no big pattern, founder of the view, in the interests of some key problems on the old to make a mistake. Such as for a one percent stake in other core team personnel were killed, a company must do not rely on one person, but a number of core and mid-level. You don’t even give some of the shares, as his others with what the company do? Some founder between short-term interests and long-term interests, between his interests and corporate interests, the interests of shareholders and his, between the old in the struggle. Is killing me.

watch areas: disruptive PK improved

netease science and technology: currently, you or your funds focus on investment in what areas? The next 2-3 years what fields will become investment hot?

wang qiang (very) : my favourite areas: education, medicine, financial Internet; From a technical point: artificial intelligence, clean energy.

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