Carving ye: O2O triple substitutions, writing to friends’ analysis

there are a lot of Internet entrepreneurs, through research, on the issue of strategic level and thus the loss of good timing, bet on the wrong direction. Ye immersed in O2O field for many years, he carved ye beef brisket is the Internet do catering representative cases of thinking. Many people say ye is severe in his pen, he of O2O industry mature axis, the analysis of consumer decision-making, and his four classic problems of industry boundaries “beat” conclusion, penetrated, is worth to read.


: ye, revise

hi, Lao zhou, this article addressed to you. Know that you are currently focusing on O2O analysis of profession, because you are a man of high social status, so the choice must be careful, the wrong choice is not worth it to one thousand losses, but also the bet and ups and downs of the glory of life.

“the so-called strategy, is standing in the future to see today” – this is what I learned from professor Ming zeng is the most important. But what is tomorrow? Just yesterday to analysis, and then bet on tomorrow, and then do a good job today. Just as a BAT “big three”, must have time to rise, this is a logical “yesterday” — —

baidu is the first rise, because he information directly from the advertising to make money, this does not need too many related industries mature, so the first implementation will flow liquid; But why tencent slower? Because tencent’s model is a flow guide to the game can be converted into cash, and bandwidth speed, is must depend on others, broadband is not popular, is unable to drive the network game boom; Taobao is the final, can’t, from payment to the logistics, to the “credit system”, as early as ten years no one, must be mature, such as live their breeding, but such as are mature, ma has become China’s richest man la… And the more mature late, you see, the greater the harvest is, the higher market value.

baidu mode, I call it a “show”;

tencent mode, I call it “qiankun removed”;

taobao model, I call it “false”.

O2O there is such a “mature” process.

the earliest mature, no doubt, and baidu a sense, the diversion of pure information. Such as public comments on the net is the case then… Online customers, by means of information, “show”, the diversion to the offline store, ways to make money, what they find is a bulk. This all can read, not much said.

is mature, is “hungry?” “home cuisine” APP, represented by the entity restaurant meals, end to the homes of customers – the key is to sell these restaurants don’t away, and they abruptly for restaurant meals, looking forward to one day unification, were with the emperor, make a “qiankun removed” money.

beaver home nail is a bit like taobao, the third mode, and not necessarily offline store cooperation, simply make non-store, “false”, will be offline entity torn nail salons and liberate the manicurist, just to do manicure. Of course, the slowest, most at risk, no matter most… In the future, services is Internet to subvert the most radical part, in the third stage.

above, is a “industry mature axis”, actually, also not too important.

here’s more important: consumer decision-making.

any business, only be involved in the consumer decision-making, is the core. For, why some O2O industry rise so fast? Because the secret is, consumer’s decision-making mechanism, there is a huge, respectively. And at least is divided into three levels:

# 1, random decisions – so-called “decision”

on behalf of the industry such as taxis, cleaning, foot massage, etc., the industry is characterized by low price, high frequency, and even ultra high frequency words, consumers spend a few minutes decision, decision is wrong, losses are less. And the service provider’s level gap is not big, do not need to deliberately selected, because the service relatively “standardization”.

# 2, consider decisions – so-called “medium decisions”

on behalf of the industry such as hairdressing, nail art, photography, modeling, and so on, the industry is characterized by medium price, medium frequency, a couple of weeks to a few months time, consumers will spend half an hour or more decision-making, do homework, do pick, meh? Because the hair is bad, mama of a month is very upset? Men think that bad a nail art important? Doesn’t matter, because men don’t nail… While women feel as unsightly nail do shit, resolute can’t go out. And the characteristics of the industry is a service provider level gap is very big, there is no “standardised” completely.

# 3, prudent decision-making – so-called “heavy decision”

on behalf of the industry such as wedding planning, real estate agents, divorce lawyer… Characteristics is a lifetime not to use several times, but use the wrong regret for the rest of your life. The service provider’s level gap can be in heaven or underground… Consumers don’t even know what to expect services, without the concept of “standardization”. Benefit is the guest unit price is really expensive, literally a single be tens of thousands of dollars or even hundreds of thousands of.

the list, be clear at a glance, why di di take a taxi, a taxi fast rise so fast? Light decision criteria, characteristics, low price and high frequency. However, there is a great mystery – light business decisions, are flat island’s the hardest thing to make money! Because as I said earlier, the service is relatively “standardized”, which is brought by the behind, the service provider (that is, a taxi driver, cleaning aunt) income actually similar, are not willing to into to the Taiwan side. Saying offensive point, is that you don’t want to “exploitation” them.

if you want to charge, you’re screwed. Another platform for free because it is over, immediately replace you. Given the largest electric business platform but ebay, because the biggest, so think the charge is also ok? Later? It’s no later… Today, taobao also no charge, and never charge – cat is day, the day the cat’s logic, is I want to talk the following:

“industry boundary” problem.

this is a more important topic, close to what I use the title, “triple substitutions” problem. This problem make a mistake, or implicitly, probably next in O2O cruel competition, die all don’t know how to die… Even, is likely to make half a day, 8848, ebay, to get up early to catch a late set, you when the paving stone, education industry and consumers, only look at the others when milestones and richest man.

the boundary is divided into “four axis” — first said the first axis, is “axis” industry, with industry for the development and expansion of the axis. this example most, drops, fast, of course, is “travel car” on the shaft. Magic weapon net is all legal service shaft… Beautiful, doodle manicure? The shaft is around the nail industry. (beautiful armor is just want to be a nail industry public comments on the net, as entities shop diversion; And doodle nail direct shanzhai beaver home, haven’t fake understand, speak later.)

the second shaft, is “axis” crowd. , for example, 58 and fair, is all about “blue-collar” crowd shaft, though you see both of them home above engaged in numerous business, but in any recruiting, second-hand goods or cleaning the aunt, clean lampblack machine, are focusing on the blue-collar people. And our beavers, is actually “axis” on the product of our strategy is “a glimmer of urban white-collar female beauty industry”. Simple a few words, draw the outline of a crowd, rather than a specific industry, the industry is quite big ~ beaver family photography, one day you don’t strange, because we define the female portrait photography for the inside of the beauty industry.

the third axis, is “scenario axis” , on behalf of the APP is ding dong village, village safe, love fresh bee, etc., the business is very complex, the crowd is difficult to specific, core is: services in a particular area, basic is a small area within the scope of the scene of the basic positioning.

fourth axis, is a “group axis”, ha ha, this basically can also calculate “resource axis”… Who can provide the “coupon” industry, the public comments on, the group is involved in the, this on their own imagination.

with the four basic axis, combining the opening one tuo tuo of rich information, I have to judge.

what I call the “four dozen however”.

# 1, “low frequency” beat “high frequency”;

# 2, “universal” beat “expert”;

# 3, “the wool is on sheep’s body” beat “wool in pigs”;

# 4, consumers “monopoly” beat “monopoly server”.

the first best explanation, in the age of the APP, open the frequency is high, is still the iron law, similar to “decision-making” and “industry association”, who high frequency who survived. At this point, I would bet against all “driving” industry at present, for example, you can’t leave drops, fast simply as “the taxi industry,” you see, they have began to encroach on to the “car” field. And then, points minutes may step in to “ride” field – about 99% of the average person, take a taxi and looking for car frequency, far higher than wine offspring driving frequency, more to the point, can’t all taxi drivers parked the taxi, then temporary when a generation of driving? As long as the price is reasonable, is money?

when all driving “X generation” industry for at least 15 minutes or half an hour to come and give you a generation of driving, drops quickly they can come a driver, three minutes and cheaper, who do you use? Mental correlation industry correlation exactly, exactly, are random decision areas, to a skilled driver, nobody CARES about handsome not handsome, and taxi drivers, I’m afraid more than people who somehow have a driver’s license? …… So to tell you the truth, as too vertical segmentation le tao and good buy, busy playing in the field of shoe… Finally, also need not a tie – taobao continues to do big, unconsciously give crush the two missing… Your core business within the “boundary” of others, and you it’s high frequency, low frequency remember three body language? “I destroy you, but nothing to do with you.”

you must ask at this moment, it is easy to use? Yi is the typical area of “travel car”! Yes, I want to say is easy to meet the second theorem: I said “universal” beat “expert”.

I was just drops and to the user at the same time, so I really have a say: when I temporary random car sure drops better, they can always the fastest time sent to taxi or car, the problem is, sometimes I’m on a business trip, outgoing city commercial vehicles, or want to face, at this point, the car is good or bad, how to shape, drivers, service quality, it is I care about the details of the price at this time not too sensitive, I several times experience as a result, easy to far ahead in the car business level.

note – at this moment, my transition from “random decision” to “consider decisions”.

don’t look down upon this transition, that is why I always say to hire a cleaning and home to home please months sister-in-law is both business! Because you are the focus of completely different, said more rough it: good job cleaning company never forced her hopeless! The reverse is also established. Because, “universal” enterprise must focus on market share and cost control, the push up, is a set of enterprise internal work and idea forming, once fought together, and the positioning of the same opponents, must be strong, can be more powerful, the more difficult it is to transition… “Expert”, often not enough emphasis on cost control and share, but the understanding of specific consumers, such as when I was a business car, easy to focus on those details – is incomparably tender and sweet, is easy to consider decisions “use” the crowd’s shake.

the third point what mean? “The wool is on sheep’s body” beat “wool in pigs” – say we beaver’s home, there are many imitations of copying beaver’s home, but it is interesting to note that they had a difficult from the traditional entity shop to manicurist, running soon quit beaver home… Why? The platform completely do not collect fees for beaver home (and promise to never accept), and a lot of money (nail salon workers, such as various training, equipment, and even endowment insurance… And those fake beaver home the door manicures, mainly is to earn commission as a ah, the comparison, it is no wonder that manicurist job-hopping – what beaver family earn? The money in the future. Now pay a few million, but China’s beauty industry of the future of hundreds of billions of share, there are too many profitable industry la…

article 4, mainly according to “consider decisions” and “prudence” field. In these two fields, the service provider of the difference is too big, bad service can only accelerate the platform’s death. And good service, it can’t be like looking for a cleaning aunt can mount guard training three days (who also not cleaning the housework? I will be! Try putting that month, can you just find personal?

one not careful, found that the code more than three thousand words. Although some details have not, but I think, big pattern analysis on these also. O2O “triple substitutions” over the next few years, should run out of these basic logic comb! As to who is winning and losing, is in the above a few blocks under the framework of a competition development speed, rhythm, team execution of finance… But after all, some O2O team “starting point” now see is wrong, must be careful, as if a few years earlier Lao zhou are you familiar with the new brand “bag” and “green box”, the team and finance (millions) are cattle, but the strategic choice for the big problem, a brand, ran out of the independent website, taobao do lost in a big mess…

business leaders, or learn a little strategy, one thousand bet on the wrong direction?

a strategic error, delay is not just of VC, there are numerous junior partner in the future and hope. Thought of here, so I decided to take this letter to alone, hope to have more entrepreneurs to help a little bit of strategic thinking.

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