A figure understand venture trend: the efforts are more likely to success?

abstract: the Guy Turner is Chicago VCS Hyede Park Venture Partners, a partner, early investment is mainly responsible for B2B software technology services. In this article, from the point of view of entrepreneurs and venture investment, analysis of the current Internet venture trend of science and technology industry, and have more potential for the future direction of the industry to do the inductive forecasts. Although this does not guarantee successful entrepreneurs, but to a certain extent, make people closer and easier to achieve your dreams.

investment value or not VS success

most vc website, there’s a module mainly analyzes the cloud computing, mobile Internet, SaaS, a few domains such as social platform independent/portfolio investment structure. However, the investment analysis is not only the theory of investors already, in science and technology changes with each passing day, now some of these investment analysis “trend” has become a reality. This is a more worry – when the blueprint has become a reality, future is a new question.

is known to all the focus on the Internet, and SaaS, cloud computing, mobile Internet, has been in the industry as well as the social platform in recent five years spawned many successful cases could not be copied, or will not be able to continue to maintain huge profits in the future.

in the famous vc interview scripts of Marc Andreessen, Marc concept of venture capital are summarized into the following four quadrant diagram, on “public opinion support/does not support”, “the success/failure” as the axis. Have to say that this idea is very simple, but also very effective:

you can see, a continued to follow public opinion to the operation of venture capital is not a long-term success, if there is too much in the implementation of the operation error, even more so. The same situation for entrepreneurs.

another way of thinking, from the perspective of return on investment.

can see from the table, the public opinion on investment, return on investment is better – this is closely related to the implementation. Executives are all human after all, public opinion of investment gains more related to “Who’s doing (Who)”; Investment and public opinion is not promising, showing the distribution of the long tail, is not just about “Who doing (Who)”, but also to “do What (What)”, “When do (When)” and “How to do it (How)”. Can be found, for the investment not favored by public opinion, the Value orientation Value Proposition, acceptance Rate Adoption Rate, Business model Business Mode, respectively corresponding to What, When, How, is uncertain. But as long as can correctly grasp the above points, not be valued by public opinion of investment can succeed – Facebook, Dropbox is a typical example.

overall, throughout startup, the success rate is not high, the investment is always risky.

investment theory framework all

if cloud computing, mobile Internet, social networking platform, SaaS is no longer investment trends, the VCS pet who will be next?

here provides a theoretical analysis, longitudinal classification in accordance with the relevant B2B, consumer, medical, health, infrastructure, four categories. Divide the basis, it is because we work, consumption, want to live longer, and infrastructure is responsible for supporting the above requirements.

level classification, from left to right, said the recent start-ups and venture capital focus – in accordance with the “theory”, “transformation”, to distinguish between “reality”.

the by the Who, What, When, How multiple variables to analyze the likelihood of successful, obviously is not likely to be accepted – after all, investors of all people will tend to focus on investment in the rush of public opinion, it’s just because varies from one of the dominant. As a result, many popular investment theories have not only stay in theoretical, but has been put into practice.

(click above to view a larger version)

in the investment field, all kinds of connection spread very fast – after all, few technology, or the business model can stay isolated in the world today. In 3 d printing, for example, the new technology has distributed manufacturing and demand oriented economy closely compatible.

in the same way, mobile power, social networks, and Internet of things have become influential nodes. Now it seems that social networking has become a reality, rather than theory, the development of the social network Who, What, When, How have been clearly defined. And the Internet of things, obviously still in developing stage theory – how can you grab iot ahead? It is still uncertain so far. While mobile electricity in the intermediate stage of theory to reality. Therefore, for social networking, huge profit space is difficult to have, for mobile electricity can expect profitability, for the Internet of things, can only say that can look forward to the profit space.

investment theory itself in evolution. When the technology paradigm change, investment theory will always find new vitality. This is also a SaaS is turned to one of the reasons that the mobile version of SaaS.

in the past nearly half a century the reform of technology paradigm is like this: we see offline – & gt; Home page window – & gt; Desktop applications — & gt; Cloud computing/cloud – & gt; Future mobile terminal (mobile end may also be further refined to a wearable device, or even embedded devices).

SaaS after 12 years of development, the business model that has been moved to the line from the PC, and thus created Salesforce.com so large online business model. As the process of mobile terminals, mobile end SaaS innovators will compete with traditional SaaS giants.

so, whether for SaaS investment theory have been out of date and does not apply to? Perhaps is not the case. As the improvement of science and technology paradigm leads to improvement of the investment theory innovation, the investment theory itself may also be combined with other theories and common evolution new achievements. SaaS, social networking, geography, for example, fences, let investors see the Geofeedia prospects.

in general, in addition to consider investing in the direction of the above levels, can also be longitudinal, considering the investment scope of transboundary extension, especially the industry of science and technology is relatively slow, such as construction, logistics, agriculture, etc.

however, the most successful investment mostly from those based on the theory of new investment, investment in the project of public opinion does not look good. Excellent team and lucky venture, if mastered the Who, What, When, How and so on right place, right time, and it is likely to be in great success.


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